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North Carolina has been identified by NOAA as one of three states with significant vulnerability to sea level rise. The state possesses the second largest estuarine system in the United States (the Albermarle-Pamlico Estuarine System, APES), with an extensive barrier island chain, and over 2,300 square miles of coastal land vulnerable to a 1 m rise in sea level (Poulter et al, 2009). The large exposure of North Carolina to the affects of sea level rise necessitates an evaluation of the potential system-wide impacts to built and living assets. In recognition of this need, the North Carolina Office of Geospatial and Technology Management Floodplain Mapping Program (NCFMP) received a $5 million grant from FEMA to comprehensively study the change in exposure and potential impatcs to built and living systems, and to develop science-based mitigation and adaptation strategies that will pro-actively reduce future impacts. |
Initiated in 2009, the North Carolina Sea level Rise Impact Study (SLRIS) is completing an assessment of potential flood consequences posed by sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in storminess associated with climate change in coastal North Carolina. The overarching goal of this study is to inform State and Federal policymakers on the subject of the SLR impacts and foster development of cost-avoidance management policy. At its core, the SLRIS will answer four high-level questions:
- What changes to coastal flooding hazards will possibly occur between 2009 and 2100 as a result of changes in storminess and sea level (with assessments at interim time steps of 2025, 2050, and 2075)?
- What built and living systems will be exposed to coastal flooding from changes in storminess and sea-level rise?
- What possible impacts and/or consequences will occur on the exposed built and living systems?
- What short- and long-term strategies will result in efficient and effective prevention and/or alleviation of exposure and consequences from changes in storminess and sea-level rise?
Ongoing and Upcoming Activities
The study is beginning production of hazard products. The final study report is scheduled to be completed by mid-2012.
Ongoing activities and major study milestones are outlined below:
- Hazard Identification: Production modeling of the sea level scenarios is underway. Hazard mapping and product generation will begin in earnest during December 2011.
- Consequence Assessment: The land use and development projection procedures are currently being tested in the production environment. Data resource acquisition and tool development are in the final stages.
- Strategy Development: Study partners have initiated the qualitative evaluation of existing policy.
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NC CRC Sea Level Rise Policy
The SLRIS is being undertaken by the North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program, administered under the Office of Geospatial and Technology Management. The study is independent of the sea-level rise policy efforts introduced by the north Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources (NCDENR), Division of Coastal Management and the Coastal Resources Commission. For more information on those efforts, please visit the following site:
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STUDY UPDATES
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Study Update -- September 2011
Posted Oct 14, 2011 8:30 AM by SusanMeredith Taylor
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Study Update -- August 2011
Key Accomplishments and ActivitiesProgressed with geomorphic evolution analysisPrepared convex hulls for statewide digital elevation models to enable hydro-flattening of elevation surfacesCreated MHW surfaces and piloted "shoreline ...
Posted Sep 26, 2011 1:11 PM by SusanMeredith Taylor
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Study Update - July 2011
Key Accomplishments and ActivitiesProgressed with geomorphic evolution analysis, includingCompleted draft issue paper summarizing considerations for the geomorphic evolution method, including stakeholder acceptance, uncertainty, and methodology option to date ...
Posted Oct 14, 2011 8:30 AM by SusanMeredith Taylor
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Study Update - June 2011
Key Accomplishments and ActivitiesProgressed with open coast and back-barrier elements of the geomorphic evolution pilot study, including follow-up with coordination action items generated from the geomorphology pilot ...
Posted Oct 14, 2011 8:31 AM by SusanMeredith Taylor
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Study Update - May 2011
Key Accomplishments and ActivitiesReviewed conceptual model against recent clarification in data assets available to the study and made draft revisionsProgressed with open coast and back-barrier elements of ...
Posted Oct 14, 2011 8:31 AM by SusanMeredith Taylor
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DATA SUBMITTAL
Data submittal forms have been made available for uploading files relevant to the SLRIS
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